In its first forecast for the new crop, government agency Conab said planted area is expected to remain stable in the world's largest producer and exporter, but it sees continuing gains in productivity at farms.
The forecast by the agency is lower than other estimates by independent analysts. On Monday, exporter Comexim projected a total crop in 2019 of 58.2 million bags.
Still, Conab's medium point at 52.48 million bags will still be a record for an off-year in Brazil and a larger crop than any on-year except for the super crop of almost 62 million bags produced in 2018, seen as a major factor for global coffee prices having reached the lowest level in 12 years.
Robusta coffee production is expected to grow differently to arabica output, since the regions producing that type of coffee in Brazil had favorable weather in recent months. Conab sees robusta production at 14.36-16.33 million bags versus 14.17 million bags in 2018.
Arabica output is seen at 36.12-38.16 million bags versus 47.48 million bags in 2018.